I suspect Malcolm Turnbull would lose at poker…

30 Nov

He does seem just lately to have shown the cards in his hand rather too much… Perhaps he secretly wants to make way for Joe Hockey rather than see Abbott succeed him? Who knows?

AFTER a weekend of extreme pressure to challenge for the leadership of the Liberal Party, Joe Hockey last night succumbed and is expected to challenge Malcolm Turnbull tomorrow as a poll shows he is more liked than the Opposition Leader.

Two-thirds of voters also want Australia to have an emissions trading scheme.

As an ailing Mr Turnbull accused lead climate change rebel Nick Minchin of wanting to destroy the Liberal Party, the latest Herald/Nielsen poll finds Mr Hockey is preferred by 36 per cent of voters as the Liberal leader. Mr Turnbull has the backing of 32 per cent and Tony Abbott has 20 per cent.

Support for Mr Turnbull has nosedived among Coalition voters but has leapt among Labor voters.

If Mr Hockey baulks, Mr Abbott will challenge. But the poll finds little enthusiasm for Mr Abbott. In a direct match-up, 51 per cent of voters prefer Mr Turnbull and 37 per cent prefer Mr Abbott.

The poll of 1200 voters was conducted on Friday and Saturday, as the Liberal Party meltdown over climate change peaked with mass defections from the frontbench and a defiant Mr Turnbull refusing to step aside…

Sydney Morning Herald


Paul Sheehan is interesting today. See also Newspoll: 57-43; Nielsen: 56-44 on The Poll Bludger.

Update 7.45 pm

I dips me lid to Ian MacFarlane. Very impressive on the 7.30 Report tonight*. And should (as everyone expects) Turnbull get done over, may Joe Hockey get up and may the rumour he will allow a free vote on the ETS be true!

… KERRY O’BRIEN: How do you feel about the possibility, if there are three contenders after a spill motion gets up tomorrow – Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Tony Abbott – the possibility, the humiliating possibility for Malcolm Turnbull that he comes third in that ballot?
IAN MACFARLANE: Oh, look, I’m not commenting on the numbers, Kerry. I mean, Malcolm will make a good fist of a ballot tomorrow. Whether or not he can win it in a three-way contest is what we’ll find out tomorrow.
KERRY O’BRIEN: Are you saying in blunt terms that Joe Hockey cannot afford to take the leadership if it means delaying the deal?
IAN MACFARLANE: Well, you can’t walk away from climate change, Kerry. The party room has acknowledged that. Everyone in the Liberal Party accepts that we would have done a better deal if we were in government. A Liberal Party without a climate change policy is not a party that’s in touch with the community at the moment. Joe knows that; Malcolm’s known that for some time. I guess at the moment what people are trying to do is come to terms with how they deal with that in the context of a potential leadership change.
KERRY O’BRIEN: Did you expect the strength of backlash from grassroots Liberals that appears to have emerged in the last week? Do you accept that the whole of that backlash is spontaneous and not orchestrated?
IAN MACFARLANE: Well, some of it is orchestrated, there’s no doubt about that. But, I mean, in the end, we’re put in Parliament to represent the people of Australia, and the people of Australia is broader than the Liberal Party base….

* On Twitter: Bernard Keane “Unbelievable to hear Ian Macfarlane say ‘you can’t walk away from climate change.’. Amazing change from five years ago.” And great to see, as he has obviously had a more open mind than most of the trogs.


2 responses to “I suspect Malcolm Turnbull would lose at poker…

  1. Martin

    November 30, 2009 at 3:10 pm

    I think the green shift may actually be partly a protest vote against Minchin’s denialism. I’m certainly more inclined to vote Green than ever now (though I usually vote left anyway I have conservative leanings on some issues). It may be that the strongest protest is what is needed to convince the deniers that we not only insist on a fait accompli scheme before Copenhagen but that we will penalise the conservatives as fully as we can if any further delays occur. I’m so sick of the rump of the conservative liberals that I wish they WOULD split off and join the nationals so we could have a sensible debate. Maybe Malcolm and his supporters could join the ALP and the ALP could be our new major conservative party with the Greens as our new major left party.

  2. Neil

    November 30, 2009 at 4:08 pm

    Amused by The mad splendour of King Malcolm by Annabel Crabb (ABC!).

    “Turnbull was very vigorous in his representation of the naked madman; his crouchings and wild outbursts were, on the whole, well done and the danger of being comical was, for the most part, avoided.”

    So reads the review, in Malcolm Turnbull’s old school magazine, of his portrayal of poor mad Edgar in Shakespeare’s King Lear – the critically acclaimed Sydney Grammar 1969 production, that is.

    Mr Turnbull was 15 years old.

    There is something madly splendid about the grown-up Turnbull, this past weekend…

    Edgar of course emerges on top by the end of the play…


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